PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Public record / v0.1
Topics
Experts
Leaderboard
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Adjusted rankings / Binary resolutions only
Leaderboard
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Sort by
Adjusted rank
Raw accuracy
Calibration
Most resolved
80% Wilson lower bound
Rank
Expert
Accuracy
Sample
Adjusted
Brier
Open
01
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Provisional
71%
5 / 7
correct / resolved
0.472
0.093
2
02
Chamath Palihapitiya
@chamath
Provisional
20%
1 / 5
correct / resolved
0.062
0.122
4
03
Larry Summers
@LHSummers
Provisional
17%
1 / 6
correct / resolved
0.051
0.406
4
#1
Provisional
Nate Silver
71%
5/7 · Adj 0.472
Brier
0.093
Open
2
Total
9
#2
Provisional
Chamath Palihapitiya
20%
1/5 · Adj 0.062
Brier
0.122
Open
4
Total
9
#3
Provisional
Larry Summers
17%
1/6 · Adj 0.051
Brier
0.406
Open
4
Total
10