Expert record
Elon Musk
Sep 1, 2026
Humanoid robots (including Optimus) become more productive in aggregate than all humans combined within approximately 10 years (by ~2036).
AI / Tech
Elon Musk
Jul 1, 2026
AI exceeds the sum of all human intelligence by approximately 2031.
AI / Tech
Elon Musk
May 18, 2026
Tesla unsupervised Full Self-Driving is widespread across the United States by the end of 2026.
AI / Tech
Elon Musk
May 18, 2026
Approximately 90% of all vehicle miles driven in the U.S. (or globally) will be autonomous by around 2031–2036.
AI / Tech
Elon Musk
Jan 22, 2026
AI systems smarter than any individual human exist by the end of 2026 or 2027.
AI / Tech
Elon Musk
Aug 27, 2025
SpaceX Starship V3 is built and tested (possibly flown) by end of 2025; V4 arrives in 2027.
Science
Elon Musk
Apr 22, 2025
Unsupervised FSD allowing passengers to sleep while the car drives to the destination is available in many U.S. cities by end of 2025.
AI / Tech
Elon Musk
Jan 29, 2025
Tesla launches unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a paid robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025.
AI / Tech
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Elon Musk
Apr 22, 2025
Unsupervised FSD allowing passengers to sleep while the car drives to the destination is available in many U.S. cities by end of 2025.
AI / Tech
Elon Musk
Jan 29, 2025
Tesla launches unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a paid robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025.
AI / Tech
Elon Musk
May 25, 2024
AGI arrives in 2025 (in response to a query about AGI timeline).
AI / Tech
Elon Musk
Jul 9, 2020
Tesla completes basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2020.
AI / Tech