Happening now
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Implied Yes2%
- Volume
- $10M
- Deadline
- Nov 7, 2028
See which pundits, CEOs, and forecasters actually got their public predictions right — every claim linked to its original quote, tied to a real deadline, and scored when it comes due.
A prediction is only worth something if you can check it later. We keep the receipt — the exact quote, the frozen claim, the deadline, and the verdict — so the record outlives the news cycle.
On the record · 81 public figures tracked
How a record is made
Step 01
We store the speaker's exact words — a verbatim substring of the original post — with a link back to the source.
Step 02
An editor normalizes it into one falsifiable sentence with resolution criteria. From publication on, it can't be quietly edited.
Step 03
Every record carries a hard deadline. Nobody gets to move the goalposts once the date is set.
Step 04
At the deadline, evidence is checked and independently reviewed. Only then does the outcome reach a scorecard.
Keep scrolling · step 1 of 4
Original statement
“I think inflation drops below 3% before the year is out.”
Example speaker · source link · exact substring
Normalized claim
FrozenYear-over-year CPI inflation will be below 3.0% by December 31.
Evidence cited · independently reviewed
Statistics
Counts come straight from the published database. Nothing is rounded up, estimated, or back-filled.
425
Published predictions with a verified source quote.
81
Public figures on the tracked roster.
1,000
Topics on the record, from elections to AI.
0
Probabilities inferred from tone of voice.
Featured record
The quote, the speaker, the date it was made, and — once it comes due — the verdict and the evidence behind it.
01 / Leaderboard
Live market context
Prediction-market prices give context on open questions. They are informational only — never an expert's prediction, and never a score.
04 / Open
05 / Not scored
Takes are forward-looking claims where at least one ingredient — usually the deadline or the resolution source — had to be imputed by an editor. They're shown for context and never enter the leaderboard.
Our approach
A probability is recorded only when the speaker states one. “Likely” stays a word, never a percentage.
Partial, ambiguous, and void outcomes are shown as they are — never forced into a win or a miss.
If a source is deleted or can’t be verified, its text comes off the page and out of the score.
FAQ
How predictions get in, how they're scored, and what we refuse to guess. Can't find an answer?
Read the methodologyA public statement must describe a future, observable outcome with defensible resolution criteria. Opinions, rhetorical questions, vague futurism, jokes, and claims that need invented precision are rejected.
03 / Resolved
Nate Silver
Jun 30, 2022
Republicans are heavy favorites to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms; the Senate is a toss-up.
Elections
Bruce Feldman
Oct 16, 2024
Ohio State wins the 2024 national championship.
Sports
David Sacks
Jan 25, 2025
A whole new wave of commercially available AI agentive products launches in 2025.
AI / Tech
Larry Summers
Feb 4, 2021
The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan will generate inflationary pressures of a magnitude not seen in a generation.
Economy
PublicLedger prefers a smaller set of defensible records. A claim is rejected when the author is not the speaker, the exact quote cannot be verified, the deadline is unsupported, the normalized meaning is stronger or weaker than the source, or the outcome cannot be measured objectively.
Words such as likely, probably, and almost certainly remain verbal confidence. A numeric probability is stored only when the source explicitly states one. Calibration and Brier scoring use only those explicit numbers.
Every published prediction freezes its normalized claim and resolution criteria. At the deadline, evidence is checked in priority order: an exactly equivalent resolved market, authoritative primary evidence, then multiple independent high-quality secondary sources. A separate verifier audits proposed outcomes.
Partial means a multi-part or threshold claim was only partly satisfied. Ambiguous means available evidence cannot support a defensible binary outcome. Void means the event definition changed materially or the claim became unresolvable. None enters binary accuracy.
Raw accuracy rewards tiny samples. The default leaderboard therefore uses the lower bound of an 80% Wilson confidence interval on Correct and Incorrect outcomes. Every expert with any published prediction or take appears; those with zero scored resolutions show a placeholder in the accuracy column and sink to the bottom of the Wilson ranking.