The public prediction record
Project Lighthouse captures the exact statement, the exact deadline, and the outcome — so a track record survives the delete button.
Ray Dalio
Sep 10, 2026
The AI-related equity market is currently in a bubble analogous to historical technology bubbles (e.g., 1920s).
Markets
Aaron Levie
Sep 10, 2026
AI capability will advance faster than its measurable GDP impact because diffusion through businesses will take much longer than expected, and diffusion will be the defining theme of the next decade.
AI / Tech
Ray Dalio
Sep 10, 2026
The AI-related equity market is currently in a bubble analogous to historical technology bubbles (e.g., 1920s).
Markets
Aaron Levie
Sep 10, 2026
AI capability will advance faster than its measurable GDP impact because diffusion through businesses will take much longer than expected, and diffusion will be the defining theme of the next decade.
AI / Tech
Takes are forward-looking claims where at least one ingredient — usually the deadline or the resolution source — had to be imputed by an editor. They're shown for context and never enter the leaderboard.
Satya Nadella
Apr 1, 2025
Approximately 30% of Microsoft’s code is written by AI (as of early/mid-2025).
AI / Tech
Sam Altman
Jun 12, 2025
AI agents capable of real cognitive work arrive in 2025.
AI / Tech
Ray Dalio
Mar 1, 2020
Cash (low-yielding) is a poor investment relative to other assets amid expected money printing and low rates in early 2020.
Markets
Larry Summers
Feb 4, 2021
The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan will generate inflationary pressures of a magnitude not seen in a generation.
Economy