PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Correct
The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan will generate inflationary pressures of a magnitude not seen in a generation.
- Expert
- Larry Summers
- Prediction date
- Feb 4, 2021
- Deadline
- Jun 30, 2022
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation.”
Resolution
Correct
CPI inflation peaked above 9% YoY in mid-2022, the highest in 40 years.
Resolved Jun 10, 2022 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan will generate inflationary pressures of a magnitude not seen in a generation.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
BLS CPI year-over-year inflation rate exceeding 5% (highest in decades) within 12-18 months of the bill’s passage.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2021-02-04 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:41 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:41 UTC