Expert record
Nate Silver
Sep 9, 2026
Democrats have a 72% probability of winning a House majority in the 2026 midterms.
Elections
Nate Silver
Jun 29, 2026
Democrats have an 85–90% chance of retaking the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms; the Senate is a toss-up.
Elections
Nate Silver
Nov 5, 2024
Kamala Harris has a 50.015% chance of winning the Electoral College in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Elections
Nate Silver
Nov 5, 2024
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is essentially a 50/50 toss-up between Harris and Trump.
Elections
Nate Silver
Jun 26, 2024
Donald Trump is favored over Joe Biden in the 2024 U.S. presidential election (model showed ~66% Trump).
Elections
Nate Silver
Nov 8, 2022
Republicans have an 84% chance of winning control of the U.S. House in the 2022 midterms.
Elections
Nate Silver
Jun 30, 2022
Republicans are heavy favorites to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms; the Senate is a toss-up.
Elections
Nate Silver
Nov 3, 2020
Joe Biden has an 89% chance of winning the Electoral College in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
Elections
Nate Silver
Jun 26, 2024
Donald Trump is favored over Joe Biden in the 2024 U.S. presidential election (model showed ~66% Trump).
Elections
Nate Silver
Nov 8, 2022
Republicans have an 84% chance of winning control of the U.S. House in the 2022 midterms.
Elections
Nate Silver
Jun 30, 2022
Republicans are heavy favorites to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms; the Senate is a toss-up.
Elections
Nate Silver
Nov 3, 2020
Joe Biden has an 89% chance of winning the Electoral College in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
Elections