PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Correct
Joe Biden has an 89% chance of winning the Electoral College in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
- Expert
- Nate Silver
- Prediction date
- Nov 3, 2020
- Deadline
- Nov 3, 2020
- Category
- Politics & Elections
- Explicit confidence
- 89%
Original statement
“Still, even making what we think are fairly conservative assumptions , our final forecast has Biden with an 89 percent chance of winning the Electoral College , as compared to a 10 percent chance for Trump.”
Resolution
Correct
Joe Biden won the Electoral College 306-232.
Resolved Dec 14, 2020 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
Joe Biden has an 89% chance of winning the Electoral College in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Official Electoral College results certified by Congress / National Archives for the 2020 presidential election.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2020-11-03 06:08 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:14 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:14 UTC