Kamala Harris has a 50.015% chance of winning the Electoral College in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Original statement

“Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%).”

Nate Silver@NateSilver538Nov 5, 2024 · 00:00 UTCView source

Resolution

Incorrect

Donald Trump won the Electoral College and the popular vote; Harris did not win.

2024 Electoral College Results

Resolved Dec 17, 2024 · 00:00 UTC

Normalized claim

Kamala Harris has a 50.015% chance of winning the Electoral College in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.

Resolution criteria

Official Electoral College results certified by Congress / National Archives for the 2024 presidential election.

Market context

No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.