PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Correct
Donald Trump is favored over Joe Biden in the 2024 U.S. presidential election (model showed ~66% Trump).
- Expert
- Nate Silver
- Prediction date
- Jun 26, 2024
- Deadline
- Nov 5, 2024
- Category
- Politics & Elections
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“When the model was finally done on Sunday night, it turned out that Trump was favored by a slightly larger degree than I’d anticipated at Manifest — although Biden retains highly viable paths to victory.”
Resolution
Correct
Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election.
Resolved Dec 17, 2024 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
Donald Trump is favored over Joe Biden in the 2024 U.S. presidential election (model showed ~66% Trump).
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Official Electoral College results certified by Congress / National Archives for the 2024 presidential election (Biden later withdrew; claim assessed on Trump victory).
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2024-06-26 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:14 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:14 UTC