Expert record
François Chollet
Sep 3, 2026
The rise of agentic capabilities in 2026 occurred faster than expected by Chollet and most observers.
AI / Tech
François Chollet
Aug 6, 2026
Pure scaling of base LLMs without additional techniques (test-time compute, harnesses) is insufficient for AGI.
AI / Tech
François Chollet
Aug 6, 2026
Even heavily scaled base LLMs (without test-time compute) continue to underperform on ARC-1 as of mid-2026.
AI / Tech
François Chollet
Mar 1, 2026
AGI is most likely to arrive around 2030 or the early 2030s.
AI / Tech
François Chollet
Mar 1, 2026
AGI will roughly coincide with the release of ARC-AGI versions 6 or 7 in the early 2030s.
AI / Tech
François Chollet
Feb 13, 2026
Achievement of AGI will not trigger a sudden exponential explosion (intelligence explosion) in AI capabilities.
AI / Tech
François Chollet
Feb 12, 2026
By 2030 it will become nearly impossible to devise tests that regular humans can pass but AI cannot.
AI / Tech
François Chollet
Feb 12, 2026
AGI will arrive approximately around 2030.
AI / Tech
No resolved misses yet
No verified predictions match this view.