PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
AGI is most likely to arrive around 2030 or the early 2030s.
- Expert
- François Chollet
- Prediction date
- Mar 1, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2035
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I think we’re probably looking at AGI by 2030, early 2030s, most likely.”
Normalized claim
AGI is most likely to arrive around 2030 or the early 2030s.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Consensus achievement of AGI (end of the human-AI gap on novel tasks) by approximately 2035 at latest.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-03-01 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:28 UTC