PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
Pure scaling of base LLMs without additional techniques (test-time compute, harnesses) is insufficient for AGI.
- Expert
- François Chollet
- Prediction date
- Aug 6, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2028
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“the early 2023 narrative that all we needed to solve AGI was scaling up base LLMs did not pan out.”
Normalized claim
Pure scaling of base LLMs without additional techniques (test-time compute, harnesses) is insufficient for AGI.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Continued failure of pure base LLM scaling to solve ARC-AGI or achieve fluid intelligence without test-time adaptation by 2028.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-08-06 17:24 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:28 UTC