PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
Achievement of AGI will not trigger a sudden exponential explosion (intelligence explosion) in AI capabilities.
- Expert
- François Chollet
- Prediction date
- Feb 13, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2035
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I don't think the rise of AGI will lead to a sudden exponential explosion in AI capabilities.”
Normalized claim
Achievement of AGI will not trigger a sudden exponential explosion (intelligence explosion) in AI capabilities.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Absence of discontinuous, self-reinforcing capability jumps immediately following AGI-level systems through 2035.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-02-13 18:15 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:28 UTC