PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
AGI will roughly coincide with the release of ARC-AGI versions 6 or 7 in the early 2030s.
- Expert
- François Chollet
- Prediction date
- Mar 1, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2035
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“Around that time, we’re going to be releasing maybe ARC-AGI 6 or ARC-AGI 7. That’s probably going to be AGI.”
Normalized claim
AGI will roughly coincide with the release of ARC-AGI versions 6 or 7 in the early 2030s.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Release of ARC-AGI-6/7 occurring near the time when the human-AI performance gap on novel tasks becomes negligible.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-03-01 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:28 UTC