PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Resolution pending
Market pricing as of September 14, 2026 assigns approximately 90% probability to a Fed rate hike that week.
- Expert
- Mohamed El-Erian
- Prediction date
- Sep 14, 2026
- Deadline
- Sep 14, 2026
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a Fed rate hike this week.”
Normalized claim
Market pricing as of September 14, 2026 assigns approximately 90% probability to a Fed rate hike that week.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
CME FedWatch or equivalent futures-implied probability of a hike at the September 2026 meeting being near 90% on that date.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-09-14 11:41 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-14 23:07 UTC