PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
Approximately 90% of all vehicle miles driven in the U.S. (or globally) will be autonomous by around 2031–2036.
- Expert
- Elon Musk
- Prediction date
- May 18, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2036
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“Five years from now and certainly 10 years from now … probably 90% of all distance driven will be driven by the AI in a self-driving car.”
Normalized claim
Approximately 90% of all vehicle miles driven in the U.S. (or globally) will be autonomous by around 2031–2036.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
U.S. Department of Transportation or industry data (e.g., SAE, NHTSA) showing autonomous vehicles accounting for ~90% of vehicle-miles traveled by 2036.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-05-18 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:34 UTC