Expert record
Larry Summers
@LHSummersunverifiedEconomist and former U.S. Treasury secretary
Economy & Rates
- Accuracy
- 14%
- Resolved
- 1 / 7
- Correct / resolved
- Predictions
- 10
- Scored
- Takes
- 0
- Displayed, not scored
- Open
- 3
Latest calls
Larry Summers
Sep 18, 2025
The U.S. is entering or approaching stagflation, with inflation surprising to the upside due to tariffs.
Economy
Open
Larry Summers
Apr 10, 2025
60% probability of a U.S. recession in calendar year 2025.
Economy
Incorrect
Larry Summers
Apr 9, 2025
More likely than not that the U.S. enters a recession (with ~2 million additional unemployed) due to tariff policies.
Economy
Open
Larry Summers
Jun 14, 2024
Implementation of proposed large tariff hikes combined with income-tax cuts will produce severe stagflation (high inflation + stagnant growth).
Economy
Open
Larry Summers
Aug 3, 2022
Approximately 75% chance of U.S. recession within 18 months (by early 2024).
Economy
Incorrect
Larry Summers
Aug 3, 2022
U.S. unemployment rate exceeds 6% sometime between 2022 and 2025.
Economy
Incorrect
Larry Summers
Jul 22, 2022
Probability greater than 50% that a U.S. recession begins in 2023.
Economy
Incorrect
Larry Summers
Jun 16, 2022
Given 2022 conditions of unemployment <4% and inflation >4%, a U.S. recession will occur within two years (by mid-2024).
Economy
Incorrect
Notable hits
Largest misses
Larry Summers
Apr 10, 2025
60% probability of a U.S. recession in calendar year 2025.
Economy
Incorrect
Larry Summers
Aug 3, 2022
Approximately 75% chance of U.S. recession within 18 months (by early 2024).
Economy
Incorrect
Larry Summers
Aug 3, 2022
U.S. unemployment rate exceeds 6% sometime between 2022 and 2025.
Economy
Incorrect
Larry Summers
Jul 22, 2022
Probability greater than 50% that a U.S. recession begins in 2023.
Economy
Incorrect