Given 2022 conditions of unemployment <4% and inflation >4%, a U.S. recession will occur within two years (by mid-2024).

Original statement

“when you have unemployment below 4% and inflation above 4%, recession always follows within two years.”

Larry Summers@LHSummersJun 16, 2022 · 00:00 UTCView source

Resolution

Incorrect

No NBER-declared recession occurred within two years of the 2022 high-inflation/low-unemployment period.

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee

Resolved Jun 30, 2024 · 00:00 UTC

Normalized claim

Given 2022 conditions of unemployment <4% and inflation >4%, a U.S. recession will occur within two years (by mid-2024).

A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.

Resolution criteria

NBER recession declaration beginning no later than June 2024.

Market context

No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.