PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
More likely than not that the U.S. enters a recession (with ~2 million additional unemployed) due to tariff policies.
- Expert
- Larry Summers
- Prediction date
- Apr 9, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- 50%
Original statement
“It's more likely than not that we're going to have a recession—and in the context of a recession, we'll see an extra 2 million people be unemployed.”
Normalized claim
More likely than not that the U.S. enters a recession (with ~2 million additional unemployed) due to tariff policies.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
NBER recession declaration beginning in 2025 or 2026, accompanied by BLS employment data showing approximately 2 million additional unemployed relative to pre-recession levels.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-04-09 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:41 UTC