PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Due
60% probability of a U.S. recession in calendar year 2025.
- Expert
- Larry Summers
- Prediction date
- Apr 10, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- 60%
Original statement
“there was a 60% chance of a 2025 economic recession.”
Normalized claim
60% probability of a U.S. recession in calendar year 2025.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declaration of a recession beginning in 2025.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-04-10 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:41 UTC