PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Incorrect
U.S. unemployment rate exceeds 6% sometime between 2022 and 2025.
- Expert
- Larry Summers
- Prediction date
- Aug 3, 2022
- Deadline
- Aug 31, 2025
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I would expect sometime within the next two or three years, that the unemployment rate will have crossed 6%.”
Resolution
Incorrect
U.S. unemployment rate remained well below 6% throughout the period.
Resolved Aug 31, 2025 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
U.S. unemployment rate exceeds 6% sometime between 2022 and 2025.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
BLS monthly unemployment rate (U-3) reaching or exceeding 6.0% by August 2025.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2022-08-03 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:41 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:41 UTC