Expert record
Andrej Karpathy
@karpathyunverifiedAI researcher and educator
AI & Technology
- Accuracy
- —
- Resolved
- 0 / 0
- Correct / resolved
- Predictions
- 10
- Scored
- Takes
- 0
- Displayed, not scored
- Open
- 10
Latest calls
Andrej Karpathy
Oct 18, 2025
A 10-year timeline to AGI (around 2035) is a bullish / optimistic forecast.
AI / Tech
Open
Andrej Karpathy
Oct 18, 2025
Karpathy’s AGI timeline is 5–10 times more pessimistic than typical Silicon Valley / Twitter hype timelines.
AI / Tech
Open
Andrej Karpathy
Oct 18, 2025
True AGI, defined as an entity one would prefer to hire over a human for an arbitrary job, remains years of additional work away.
AI / Tech
Open
Andrej Karpathy
Oct 17, 2025
Current AI models are in an intermediate stage of development and still require substantial further work before AGI.
AI / Tech
Open
Andrej Karpathy
Oct 17, 2025
The period from roughly 2025–2035 will be the decade of agents rather than a single “year of agents.”
AI / Tech
Open
Andrej Karpathy
Oct 17, 2025
Resolving the key remaining deficits of current models (continual learning, cognitive limitations, etc.) will take about a decade.
AI / Tech
Open
Andrej Karpathy
Oct 17, 2025
Current frontier models fall short of the capabilities being claimed or implied by much of the industry.
AI / Tech
Open
Andrej Karpathy
Oct 17, 2025
The arrival of AGI will not produce a sharp discontinuity in global GDP growth rates but will blend into the long-term ~2% trend.
AI / Tech
Open
Notable hits
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Largest misses
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