PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
The US national generic congressional ballot on 2026-11-03 will show Democrats leading by 10 or more percentage points.
- Expert
- G. Elliott Morris
- Prediction date
- Aug 27, 2026
- Deadline
- Nov 3, 2026
- Category
- Politics & Elections
- Explicit confidence
- 20-30%+ chance
Original statement
“IMO people are underestimating the chance of a double-digit Dem margin in Nov. Modal outcome? No, but certainly 20-30%+ chance. Our LV generic ballot is D+8-9, and out-party tends to gain 1-2 points from Sept to Novhttps://t.co/tN6vJp1VTC”
Normalized claim
The US national generic congressional ballot on 2026-11-03 will show Democrats leading by 10 or more percentage points.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
The RealClearPolitics national generic congressional ballot average for 2026-11-03 (or the closest published daily average whose polling window covers that day) shows Democrats leading by 10.0 percentage points or more.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-08-27 13:14 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-08 15:42 UTC