PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Early versions of true superintelligence arrive within a couple of years of February 2026; by end of 2028 more of the world’s intellectual capacity resides in data centers than outside them.
- Expert
- Sam Altman
- Prediction date
- Feb 19, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2028
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“On our current trajectory, we believe we may be only a couple of years away from early versions of true superintelligence. By the end of 2028, more of the world’s intellectual capacity could reside inside of data centres than outside.”
Normalized claim
Early versions of true superintelligence arrive within a couple of years of February 2026; by end of 2028 more of the world’s intellectual capacity resides in data centers than outside them.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
OpenAI or peer-lab announcements of systems exceeding human-level performance across most cognitive domains by ~2028, plus quantitative estimates (e.g., FLOPs or effective researcher-equivalents) showing data-center capacity exceeding human intellectual capacity.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-02-19 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:50 UTC