PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
AI inference prices continue falling at roughly 30x per year (at constant quality).
- Expert
- Paul Graham
- Prediction date
- Sep 3, 2026
- Deadline
- Sep 1, 2029
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“he predicts inference prices will keep falling roughly 30x per year, keeping the lean model viable.”
Normalized claim
AI inference prices continue falling at roughly 30x per year (at constant quality).
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Public pricing data from major AI providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, etc.) showing approximate 30x annual cost reduction for equivalent inference quality over the subsequent 2–3 years.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-09-03 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:44 UTC