PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
There is a 60% chance that SNARKs, FHE, and iO can all operate with <10x overhead, and a good chance at least one (likely SNARKs) reaches single-digit overhead by the end of the 2020s.
- Expert
- Vitalik Buterin
- Prediction date
- Sep 6, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- 60%
Original statement
“I think that there is a 33% chance that, for average real-world computation, there exist ways to implement all three of what I call the Egyptian God Protocols (SNARK, FHE, iO) with 1+ε factor overhead ... And a 60% chance that all three can be done with single-digit overhead (ie. <10x ...). I think there's a good chance we'll get one of these (probably SNARKs with single-digit overhead) by the end of this decade.”
Normalized claim
There is a 60% chance that SNARKs, FHE, and iO can all operate with <10x overhead, and a good chance at least one (likely SNARKs) reaches single-digit overhead by the end of the 2020s.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Peer-reviewed papers, conference presentations, or production implementations demonstrating SNARKs/FHE/iO with measured overhead <10x (or near 1+ε) for realistic workloads by 2030-12-31.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-09-06 13:20 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:54 UTC