PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
As of July 2026, frontier AI systems outperform 99.99% of human doctors on relevant medical tasks.
- Expert
- Marc Andreessen
- Prediction date
- Jul 12, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“AI is already a better doctor than 99.99% of human doctors. This is good news.”
Normalized claim
As of July 2026, frontier AI systems outperform 99.99% of human doctors on relevant medical tasks.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Peer-reviewed or large-scale evaluations showing frontier models superior to the vast majority of physicians on diagnostic or advisory benchmarks as of mid-2026.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-07-12 04:51 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:37 UTC