PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
By the end of 2030, AI models exist that are extraordinarily capable and can do things humans cannot do.
- Expert
- Sam Altman
- Prediction date
- Sep 25, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I would certainly say by the end of this decade, so, by 2030, if we don’t have models that are extraordinarily capable and do things that we ourselves cannot do, I’d be very surprised.”
Normalized claim
By the end of 2030, AI models exist that are extraordinarily capable and can do things humans cannot do.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Publicly demonstrated or peer-reviewed AI systems performing tasks (e.g., novel scientific discovery) beyond current human capability by 2030-12-31.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-09-25 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:50 UTC