PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Correct
Joe Biden wins the November 2020 U.S. presidential election (with implied ~65-70% probability).
- Expert
- Chamath Palihapitiya
- Prediction date
- Oct 3, 2020
- Deadline
- Nov 3, 2020
- Category
- Politics & Elections
- Explicit confidence
- 65%
Original statement
“Biden 6535, approaching 7030.”
Resolution
Correct
Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump, receiving 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232.
Resolved Dec 14, 2020 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
Joe Biden wins the November 2020 U.S. presidential election (with implied ~65-70% probability).
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Official Electoral College results certified by Congress and reported by the National Archives for the 2020 presidential election.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2020-10-03 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:07 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:07 UTC