PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
The likelihood of direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Russia (and also with Iran and North Korea) is substantially higher than in recent prior periods.
- Expert
- Ian Bremmer
- Prediction date
- Dec 23, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2028
- Category
- Geopolitics & Conflict
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“There’s clearly a much higher likelihood of direct military confrontation now between the U.S. and Russia. The U.S. and Iran. The U.S. and North Korea.”
Normalized claim
The likelihood of direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Russia (and also with Iran and North Korea) is substantially higher than in recent prior periods.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Occurrence or narrowly averted direct U.S.-Russia military engagement (beyond Ukraine proxy conflict), or equivalent with Iran/North Korea, documented by official military reports by 2028.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-12-23 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:39 UTC