PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
A U.S. recession is unlikely in the near term as of mid-2026.
- Expert
- Claudia Sahm
- Prediction date
- Jul 19, 2026
- Deadline
- Jun 30, 2027
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“Sahm indicated that a recession is unlikely in the near term.”
Normalized claim
A U.S. recession is unlikely in the near term as of mid-2026.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
No NBER-dated recession beginning in the second half of 2026 or early 2027.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-07-19 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-13 00:30 UTC