PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
The upcoming year (following the statement) will be the hottest on record, with high likelihood of crop failures and commodity/energy price spikes due to El Niño.
- Expert
- David Friedberg
- Prediction date
- May 19, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2027
- Category
- Energy & Climate
- Explicit confidence
- 99%
Original statement
“99% confidence that will make the upcoming year the hottest year on record by far that humans have ever experienced. ... the crops start to fail. ... you could see energy prices spiking and ... commodity prices spiking all over the world.”
Normalized claim
The upcoming year (following the statement) will be the hottest on record, with high likelihood of crop failures and commodity/energy price spikes due to El Niño.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
NASA/NOAA global temperature records confirming the year as the hottest on record, plus FAO or commodity exchange data on major crop shortfalls and price spikes.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-05-19 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:28 UTC