PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
A U.S. debt crisis arrives around 2029 (±2 years) if fiscal trajectory is unchanged.
- Expert
- Ray Dalio
- Prediction date
- Aug 21, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2031
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“My guess, which I suppose will be a bad one, is that it will come in three years, give or take two, if the course we're on is not changed.”
Normalized claim
A U.S. debt crisis arrives around 2029 (±2 years) if fiscal trajectory is unchanged.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Occurrence of a clear debt crisis (e.g., sharp spike in Treasury yields, forced Fed intervention, or formal default/restructuring event) between 2027 and 2031, per Treasury or Fed announcements.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-08-21 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:48 UTC