PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
60% probability that SNARKs, FHE, and iO eventually run at <10× ordinary computation cost; 33% chance of near-zero overhead.
- Expert
- Vitalik Buterin
- Prediction date
- Sep 6, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2035
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- 60%
Original statement
“there is a 60% probability that SNARKs, fully homomorphic encryption and indistinguishability obfuscation will eventually operate at less than 10 times the cost of ordinary computation. He put the odds at 33% that all three could approach near-zero additional overhead at sufficient scale.”
Normalized claim
60% probability that SNARKs, FHE, and iO eventually run at <10× ordinary computation cost; 33% chance of near-zero overhead.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Published benchmarks or production systems demonstrating the claimed overhead levels for all three primitives on realistic workloads, accepted by the cryptography research community.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-09-06 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:54 UTC