PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Correct
The Sahm Rule recession indicator is not currently signaling a recession as of mid-2026.
- Expert
- Claudia Sahm
- Prediction date
- Jul 19, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“At present, she does not see that recessionary pattern.”
Resolution
Correct
FRED real-time Sahm Rule remained well below 0.50 in mid-to-late 2026.
Resolved Sep 4, 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
The Sahm Rule recession indicator is not currently signaling a recession as of mid-2026.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Real-time Sahm Rule value remaining below the 0.50 threshold through at least late 2026.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-07-19 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-13 00:30 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-13 00:30 UTC