PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
By December 2022 at least one non-Google/DeepMind group will publicly demonstrate a protein-folding model with AlphaFold-comparable accuracy.
- Expert
- David Friedberg
- Prediction date
- Dec 4, 2020
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2022
- Category
- Science & Space
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“By December 2022, at least one non-Google/DeepMind group (academic, corporate, or startup) will have publicly demonstrated a protein-folding model with AlphaFold-comparable accuracy, effectively replicating the AlphaFold result.”
Resolution
RoseTTAFold, HelixFold, and similar models achieved near-AlphaFold accuracy and were publicly demonstrated before the end of 2022.
Resolved Dec 31, 2022 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
By December 2022 at least one non-Google/DeepMind group will publicly demonstrate a protein-folding model with AlphaFold-comparable accuracy.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Public release or peer-reviewed demonstration of a non-DeepMind protein structure prediction model achieving CASP-comparable accuracy (e.g., RoseTTAFold, HelixFold, or ESMFold) by end of 2022.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2020-12-04 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:28 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:28 UTC