PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Correct
Real wage growth turned positive as inflation declined from 2022 peaks.
- Expert
- Jason Furman
- Prediction date
- Sep 1, 2023
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2024
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“Real wages have begun to recover as inflation moderates.”
Resolution
Correct
Real average hourly earnings recovered and posted positive growth as CPI inflation fell.
Resolved Dec 31, 2024 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
Real wage growth turned positive as inflation declined from 2022 peaks.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
BLS real average hourly earnings showing positive year-over-year growth by late 2023 / 2024.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2023-09-01 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-13 03:17 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-13 03:17 UTC