PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
2026 marks a tipping point in which the United States actively unwinds the post-WWII international order it previously led.
- Expert
- Ian Bremmer
- Prediction date
- Jan 6, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- Geopolitics & Conflict
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“2026 is a tipping point year. ... the U.S. is unwinding its own global order.”
Normalized claim
2026 marks a tipping point in which the United States actively unwinds the post-WWII international order it previously led.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Observable U.S. policy actions in 2026 that substantially reduce commitment to existing alliances, trade regimes, or multilateral institutions, as documented by official statements and institutional membership/funding changes.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-01-06 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:39 UTC