PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
Cash will deliver the worst long-term real returns among major asset classes due to inflation.
- Expert
- Ray Dalio
- Prediction date
- Aug 1, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Category
- Markets & Investing
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“Cash "has the lowest return, guaranteed almost to have the worst return over the longer period of time"”
Normalized claim
Cash will deliver the worst long-term real returns among major asset classes due to inflation.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Cumulative real returns (after CPI) of cash/money-market funds trailing stocks, bonds, gold, and real estate over a multi-year period ending 2030, per BLS CPI and asset price indexes.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-08-01 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:48 UTC