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A modest Fed funds rate increase of 25–75 basis points in the remainder of 2026 is appropriate to bring inflation down.
- Expert
- Claudia Sahm
- Prediction date
- Sep 7, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I view a modest increase in the funds rate, starting with a quarter point in September and maybe 50 or 75 basis points higher in total by the end of the year, as a way to ensure inflation is trending down in a timely way.”
Normalized claim
A modest Fed funds rate increase of 25–75 basis points in the remainder of 2026 is appropriate to bring inflation down.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Federal funds rate path in late 2026 including at least one 25 bp hike, with total tightening up to 75 bp by year-end.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-09-07 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-13 00:30 UTC