PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
Intelligence (AI inference/compute) becomes too cheap to meter (approaching marginal cost of electricity) within the 2020s–early 2030s timeframe referenced.
- Expert
- Sam Altman
- Prediction date
- Jun 12, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“Intelligence too cheap to meter is well within grasp. This may sound crazy to say, but if we told you back in 2020 we were going to be where we are today, it probably sounded more crazy than our current predictions about 2030.”
Normalized claim
Intelligence (AI inference/compute) becomes too cheap to meter (approaching marginal cost of electricity) within the 2020s–early 2030s timeframe referenced.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Industry reports or OpenAI/pricing data showing AI inference costs approaching the cost of electricity (near-zero marginal cost per token beyond energy) by ~2030.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-06-12 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:50 UTC